Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) Storm Center | By Riley Hazel | Published August 22, 2023
After several locations in Florida, including Key West, Fort Myers, Miami, Tampa and Sarasota recorded their warmest month on record in July, the Southeast Regional Climate Center is predicting that more records may be broken again this month.
Warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have contributed to high humidity and what feels-like triple-digit temperatures.
NOAA Climatologist Chris Fuhrmann said the Southeast region is seeing a continuation of warmer weather and is predicting above-average temperatures for the next three months. Key West recently recorded its highest minimum temperature at 88 degrees.
The warmer temperatures and lack of rain presented dryness in the northern Gulf Coast and the Tampa Bay area. Severe and extreme drought is emerging across parts of Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota counties. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, 2.9 million Florida residents are facing drought-like conditions.
In North Florida where peanuts are often growing, the water demand is high at this time of year.
“Showing over the last couple of weeks is a relatively dry pattern, so that could potentially impact peanuts and other crops across the region moving forward,” Fuhrmann said.
Rain predicted for the next week could improve those conditions.
As the region approaches the peak period for tropical activity, systems can change potential flood risks. Over the three-month forecast, river flood risk remains typical for the Southeast region.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for all the Southeast. North Florida could see in some cases, half an inch to an inch of rain over the next week or so.
The Climate Prediction Center indicates a two-in-three chance of a strong El Niño event by this winter, possibly bringing wetter conditions to the Southeast. This is based on observed sea surface temperatures.
However, stronger impacts are not always a guarantee of significant effects locally, so be sure to stay updated throughout the season.
TS Harold makes landfall in TX; Franklin is likely to be a hurricane this weekend
Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) Storm Center | By Jeff George | Published August 22, 2023
Tropical Storm Harold made landfall on Padre Island late this morning with max sustained winds of 50 mph. According to Colorado State University’s Phil Klotzbach, only 6 other years on record had 9 or more named storms by August 22nd. Overnight, Harold was the 4th Atlantic storm to form in just 39 hours. Klotzbach also emphasizes this is the fastest time on record for 4 Atlantic named storm formations, breaking records set in 1893 and 1980.
Harold has already caused significant flooding and isolated tornadoes across parts of south Texas. On average, 3-7” of rain will fall across that area the next several days as the storm tracks slowly westward and weakens.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Franklin will continue to bring flooding rains and tropical storm conditions to parts of the Greater Antilles the next several days. Franklin is still forecasted to head north-northeast and likely turn into a weak hurricane this weekend. Although the track and intensity remain uncertain afterward, no direct impacts are expected along the U.S. East Coast.
A large area of high pressure will strengthen across the Atlantic this week creating unfavorable conditions for tropical development. Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert just east of the Lesser Antilles should gradually weaken the next couple of days. The circulation will open up into a weak wave then slowly dissipate soon after. Two other disturbances will track north and west through the central Atlantic but will struggle due to that high pressure.
Hurricane season still has a ways to go and we expect things to stay active, so please get the Florida Storms app to keep you safe and informed at all times.
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